Q2 GDP rose 0.8% q/q as mining rebounded; July mining output gained 1% m/m and 4.4% y/y, extending momentum despite structural constraints.
Q2 Growth Surprises on the Upside
South Africa’s economy beat expectations in Q2 2025, expanding 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year, with a rebound in mining and firmer consumer spending underpinning the result. Abigail Moyo, spokesperson for the trade union UASA, said, “The GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is promising news for the South African economy. This growth was supported by a strong recovery in the mining sector and increased consumer spending.”
However, she went on to say that, “We cannot ignore that current growth levels are insufficient to offset population growth and rising unemployment.”
Mining’s Direct Lift to GDP
Within the Q2 results, mining stood out: the sector grew 3.7% q/q and added 0.2 percentage points to overall GDP. The momentum carried into the new quarter. According to African Mining Market, July 2025 mining production rose 1% month-on-month—its fifth consecutive monthly increase—and 4.4% year-on-year.
Composition of July’s Gains
July’s month-on-month gains were led by iron ore (+5.1%), manganese (+8.9%), copper (+4.0%) and gold (+0.9%), offset by declines in chrome (-1.7%), PGMs (-0.3%), nickel (-23.8%), diamonds (-2.3%) and coal (-1.3%). Year-on-year, iron ore (+12.2%), PGMs (+6.2%), diamonds (+5.9%) and coal (+1.4%) increased, while gold (-0.4%), copper (-6.7%), manganese (-3.3%) and nickel (-8.7%) fell.
Economists’ Read: Firmer, but Not Fixed
FNB senior economist Thanda Sithole noted that “On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded by 0.8% quarter on quarter, sustaining momentum after the 0.1% rise in the previous quarter. This was above both our forecast and the Reuters consensus of 0.5%.”
Investec’s Lara Hodes warned that, “The outcome is below 1% and as such is reflective of a domestic economy that continues to face a myriad of structural challenges, notably on the logistics front.” Together, these views point to mining’s role as a near-term stabilizer while longer-running constraints persist.
Given the recent results, mining output is projected to increase by ~1% in Q3 2025. While that supports the growth baseline, the broader economic headwinds, particularly logistics, still weigh on sustained acceleration.
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