Middle East Crisis Pressures African SMEs

Disruption to trade, energy and fertilizer flows due to the Middle East crisis is raising risks for small businesses, even as regional commerce is projected to expand in 2026

Middle East Shock Raises Pressure on African Trade

A fresh warning over Africa’s 2026 outlook points to the strain that continued disruption in trade, energy and fertilizer flows could place on the continent. As previously reported by Gulf Africa Review, the Middle East crisis could cut Africa’s 2026 growth by 0.2% if those pressures persist, adding to concern over how external shocks are filtering into trade and business activity.

For businesses on the ground, the impact is expected to be especially sharp for smaller firms. Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express, Sub-Saharan Africa, said the fallout for African SMEs is likely to become more visible over time, particularly as liquidity pressure builds. “Generally, you start seeing a credit crunch on SMEs anything from six to eight weeks in,” he said. “It is my absolute hope that financial institutions will apply the lessons learned during Covid and that there’s a little understanding that this is not self-inflicted; these are factors and circumstances outside the control of these SMEs.”

Logistics Delays Add to Business Costs

According to Heymans, the disruption is already affecting logistics performance. He said DHL is seeing longer transit times “because the operational availability of airports in the Middle East is changing” and because more ships are stopping at ports such as Cape Town. He also warned that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is significantly affecting flows of fuel and fertiliser that many African agrifoods-producing countries rely on, creating what he described as “unavoidable costs” for small businesses.

That creates a more difficult environment for companies already exposed to delays, tighter working capital and rising input costs. At the same time, the wider concern is that prolonged disruption could weigh on broader economic performance across the continent.

Intra-African Trade Still Points Upwards

Even so, the outlook for regional trade remains positive. Afreximbank’s African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026 projects intra-African trade will reach $230 billion in 2026, up 10% from $210 billion in 2025. The report claims that intra-African trade is forecast to account for 16% of total trade, estimated at around $1.4 trillion.

The same report says growth is being driven by the expansion of the AfCFTA and the rollout of PAPSS, which is expected to reduce currency conversion costs by 20–30%.

Crisis Could Accelerate Regional Recalibration

Heymans argued that the current disruption could also push African economies to deepen regional trade ties. “It’s a great opportunity for Africa to look inward,” he said. He added that the conflict should be a “wake-up call” to accelerate the development of the African Continental Free Trade Area and help the continent become more resilient.

That opportunity, however, sits alongside structural constraints. Afreximbank’s outlook notes that exports remain dominated by commodities at 60–70%, Africa still accounts for only about 3% of global exports, and untapped export potential is estimated at $434 billion. The message is clear: the case for intra-African trade is strengthening, but turning that momentum into durable resilience will require deeper structural transformation.

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