A US$1.55 billion surplus points to South Africa’s export resilience, but flat export growth, market concentration, and FMD remain concerns.
Record Surplus Marks Strong Quarter
South Africa’s agricultural sector recorded its highest-ever first-quarter trade surplus in 2026, reaching US$1.55 billion between January and March, according to a report by AgriSA.
This represents a 16.1% increase compared with the same period in 2025, underlining the continued competitiveness of South African agriculture in international markets.
However, the record surplus was not driven by a major expansion in exports. Total agricultural exports reached US$3.30 billion, broadly in line with Q1 2025 levels, while imports declined by 10.6% to US$1.76 billion. This suggests that lower import costs played a central role in strengthening the trade balance.
Lower Imports Support the Balance
The improved surplus was achieved primarily through lower import values rather than stronger export earnings. Falling international commodity prices for products such as palm oil, rice, coffee, and frozen fish contributed to the decline in imports.
For trade-focused investors, the figures point to a mixed picture. The headline surplus confirms the sector’s resilience, but it also highlights the need to build export momentum and develop markets beyond favorable import conditions.
“The results confirm the resilience and competitiveness of South African agriculture in a complex global trading environment. While the record trade surplus is positive, it also highlights the importance of strengthening export growth, safeguarding market access, and resolving biosecurity challenges such as FMD,” says AgriSA CEO Johann Kotzé.
Horticulture Leads Export Performance
Horticulture remained the strongest driver of South Africa’s agricultural export performance, accounting for 55% of all agricultural exports during the quarter.
Strong performances were recorded across grapes, apples, pears, wine, citrus, berries, and tree nuts. Grapes were the leading agricultural export category, generating US$783 million in export earnings, while horticulture as a whole generated a trade surplus of US$1.66 billion.
This performance reinforces the role of horticulture in foreign exchange earnings, employment, and market diversification. It also reflects South Africa’s position as a counter-seasonal supplier to Northern Hemisphere markets, particularly in Europe.
Livestock and US Exports Face Pressure
Despite the positive overall figures, the sector continues to face structural challenges. Foot-and-mouth disease continues to restrict livestock exports, particularly into high-value Middle Eastern and Asian markets.
Livestock exports declined by 12.9% in Q1, while fresh beef exports fell by 56.6% and frozen beef exports declined by 26.4%. Export volumes into Middle Eastern markets contracted by between 50% and 95%, depending on the destination.
Exports to the United States also declined sharply, falling by 39.9% during the quarter. As a result, the US moved from South Africa’s seventh-largest agricultural export destination to 11th position.
Diversification Remains Central
The report also points to rising concentration risk. The Netherlands, the UK, and Zimbabwe accounted for nearly 39% of agricultural exports in Q1, while dependence on horticultural exports and European gateway markets remains a potential vulnerability.
Any disruption to logistics, market access, phytosanitary requirements, or weather conditions could therefore have a disproportionate impact on export performance.
“Long-term success will depend on our ability to diversify export destinations, maintain trusted trading relationships, and create an enabling environment for producers to remain globally competitive,” Kotzé said.
The full report can be read here.
For more information on African agriculture, visit our dedicated archives and follow us on LinkedIn.